Just Another Y2K Crisis?
For the average US consumer contemplating the specter of a significant food shortage affecting their life, it’s understandable to be somewhat indifferent. Even with the inconveniences of the recent pandemic, most of us weren’t really faced with actual starvation. That begs the question of whether it’s really worth preparing for. Or, is a well stocked pantry going to become an embarrassing symbol reminiscent of some individuals’ apocalyptic preparations for Y2K.
Still, current events such as the conflict in Ukraine inevitably lead to economic sanctions, import bans, destruction of infrastructure, a refugee crisis, and supply chain disruptions, which are in turn stoking global food prices and risking shortages. These higher prices and potentially falling inventories could trigger cascading effects which create significant food insecurity in the US and around the world. This isn’t a one-off problem easily solved by a computer update. It’s a persistent, deteriorating cycle that will have unavoidable consequences. Let’s take a look at some of the factors involved:
Primary Drivers:
- Population Growth: Despite a common belief that the world’s population must stop growing in order to preserve humanity’s future, governments in some wealthy nations like Finland, Italy, Japan, and Australia, are actively promoting incentive packages to encourage their citizens to bear children and combat falling birthrates. All the while, populations in poor countries continue to increase.
- Changing Consumer Expectations: As more and more people in emerging economies move up from poverty, their first priority is to improve their diet. This includes adding proteins such as meat, milk, fish and eggs. The production of foods like this, that reside higher on the food chain, places significantly more pressure on grains and similar basic commodities.
- Food Demand is Doubling: The combination of rising population and changing consumer expectations means that today, global food demand is rising twice as fast as global food output.
- Water Crisis: The relentless need for fresh water is becoming more dire year by year. Increasingly, conflicts arise around competing access to water for irrigating food crops, industrial production, and household use. Climate changes, inequitable water rights, and poorly managed withdrawals from surface water & aquifers are putting significant pressure on farmers’ and ranchers’ ability to maintain regular levels of production.
- Land Scarcity: Globally, one quarter of all land is so degraded by poor soil management, contamination, loss of topsoil, and other factors that it is unable to produce food. Existing fertile land is lost when cities and suburbs continue to expand. Even recreation demands for growing communities push out active agricultural enterprises.
- Toxic Pollution: Dangerous industrial waste, surface and groundwater pollution, and over-application of agricultural chemicals damage soil’s ability to produce food. Air pollution, acid rain, and other less visible effects of human activities all create an environment where food production is under increasing pressure.
- Urban Food Production: As cities become more crowded and increasingly polluted, food that might have been produced in small household gardens is disappearing. Increasingly, urban restaurants and grocery stores are dependent on fresh food imported from other states or even other countries.
- Nutrient Losses: Soil erosion is a major factor in degradation of agricultural land since that soil carries necessary nutrients for growth. Even the ability to replace lost nutrients with chemical fertilizers is increasingly difficult as regional strife restricts access to important components such as potash.
- Waste: Critical organic matter and associated soil nutrients are also lost in waste streams. Fully half of all food produced worldwide is trashed or lost rather than being returned to the food cycle through composting or similar methods.
- Energy: Modern farming tools and techniques depend on fossil fuels. The intention is to increase productivity and support larger agricultural businesses. However, as prices for oil and other fossil fuels rise, the cost of producing food also rises, eventually leading to reduced availability when current markets won’t bear the increased cost. Growing fuel on-site has been a solution embraced by many farmers, but the land and energy devoted to fuel production reduces overall food output by as much as 10-20%.
- Oceans: The world over, aquatic ecosystems are decimated by problems like overfishing and destruction of coral reefs from everything from sedimentation to higher temperatures. Oceans are becoming more acidic as increased pollution from fossil fuels settles into the water. Even constructed fish farms suffer from problems related to pollution and increasing sediment runoff.
- Technology: In past decades, when food was cheap and plentiful in all but the poorest countries, interest in improving farming techniques and addressing emerging problems was low. Funding for research and advancements into sustainable farming techniques dried up until we’re now faced with a growing crisis with lagging scientific and technological support.
- Climate Changes: Our planet now faces regular periods of widespread drought alternating with devastating floods in areas poorly prepared to withstand the damage. Intensifying hurricanes, late or absent monsoons, increasingly devastating floods, and sea-level rise are affecting food security, triggering waves of refugees and associated regional conflict.
- Economics, Politics, Trade: Government initiatives like farm subsidies and trade barriers distort world markets, distorting pricing and availability. This artificial environment not only discourages investment into agriculture & related sciences but means that farmers no longer can make a living producing food.
“To sum it all up, the challenge facing the world’s 1.8 billion women and men who grow our food is to double their output of food -- using far less water, less land, less energy and less fertilizer. They must accomplish this on low and uncertain returns, with less new technology available, amid more red tape, economic disincentives, and corrupted markets, and in the teeth of spreading drought.”
