Our world is getting warmer and wetter. In the United States, eight of the ten hottest years ever recorded have occurred in the past two decades. These rising temperatures have led to observable increases in evaporation from lakes, rivers, and even the ground itself. Greater evaporation means more frequent and heavier rainfall, but only in some parts of the world. While precipitation has gotten more intense, and floods have come more often in the last few decades, more significant swaths of the U.S. have also plunged into deep, prolonged drought.
In places where rain is already infrequent (like in California, New Mexico, Arizona, and other parts of the Southwest), hotter days and more evaporation means arid conditions. When the rain does come, it is more intense and in larger quantities. However, this does not serve as a respite for thirsty crops due to the short-lived wet season. Instead, the massive amount of precipitation is washed further down the watershed, where it evaporates back into the atmosphere before it can sink into empty aquifers. Homes and landowners that rely on wells pulling from sinking groundwater must dig deeper wells or build new ones entirely. This is a significant expense, and depending on conditions, can cost upwards of $15,000.
Dry Numbers
Since the weekly Drought Report began reporting in 2000, anywhere from 20% to 70% of the United States has been experiencing drought-like conditions. These conditions are rated from D0 to D4, signaling merely abnormally dry conditions to exceptional drought. These ratings are based on local weather and water system patterns, their effects on agriculture and ecosystems, and the socioeconomic ripples arising from these changes. As a drought grows in intensity and length, its impact on humans and the natural world grows exponentially. Not only does a lack of water endanger thirsty crops and soil but losing feed grain and pastures can make livestock especially vulnerable, especially with the addition of heat-borne illnesses and disease.
A lack of supply also leads to rising prices in grocery stores and wholesale markets, quickly spiraling into economy-wide inflation. Underemployment from lack of supply leaves laborers who are dependent on seasonal work stranded, while others see their wages drop. Farmers unable to invest in new equipment, seeds, and fertilizers will affect the businesses that depend on their patronage. On the other end of extreme temperatures, coffee trees in Brazil were damaged in 2019 by the worst freeze in 25 years. As Brazil produces around 40% of the world's entire coffee supply, this has so far caused global coffee prices to rise by 17%. In 2014, nearly 60% of California spent at least a month or longer in D4 conditions. Researchers at UC Davis found that California's agricultural industry lost almost $4 billion between 2014 and 2016 due to prolonged, severe drought. In June of 2021, Arizona reported that fourteen of its fifteen counties were experiencing D4 conditions.
Pinal County is a hub of the agricultural industry in Arizona, making up 2% of the value of the U.S.'s entire agrarian sales. Farmers depending on water coming from the Colorado River via the Central Arizona Project Canal (CAP) are virtually last on the list for water priority after municipal and recreational uses. As water restrictions increase, Pinal County farmers stand to lose access to up to 300,000 acre-feet of water, representing about 60% of their current water supply. A study by the University of Arizona projects that the water shortage will cause Pinal County to lose up to $160 million in gross sales and up to 480 full or part-time jobs. By 2023, just as drought conditions increase in the region, the CAP will stop providing water to Arizona agriculture entirely. Farmers and landowners will have to return to relying solely on pulling groundwater from subterranean aquifers, as they did decades earlier.
An American Farm Bureau Federation survey of southwest U.S. farmers found that every single farmer with livestock expected to sell between 50% and 100% of their herd if drought conditions did not improve. As we move forward into a new future, we will have more tools and technology than any generation before us, but we will face new challenges to match.
Currently, farmers and their yields serve a pivotal role in the global economy, feeding more people than ever before. The Farm Bureau estimates that today one U.S. farm provides for around 166 people per year, both domestically and abroad. This demand is only growing, with the world population estimated to increase by about 2.2 billion by 2050. This will require the world's farmers to produce around 70% more food than now. Farmers are already fighting on several fronts. Rising temperatures, prolonged drought, supply chain complications post-COVID-19, and explosive shifts in public demand all play massive critical roles in how a farmer makes decisions today. Scaling worldwide food production up by nearly 70% in less than half a century will require global advancements in water management, food production, and delivery systems.
Legions of scientists, world leaders, and agricultural experts have dedicated themselves to the challenges of our environment. As science and technology improve, our responses to drought are more varied than ever. There are hundreds of grants and relief funds at the state and federal level for landowners that have lost income to drought. Some of these offer incentives and support for farmers modernizing their current methods of water storage or transportation. In one example, Arizona approved $9 million to support the installation of new wells and pump systems for Pinal farmers threatened by the impending loss of water rights. The same year, lawmakers introduced another bill that allocated an additional $20 million for similar upgrades. Universities across the U.S. have also partnered with individual farms to conduct observational and experimental studies into crop genetics, soil sciences, and irrigation efficiency. In one instance, as demand for almonds has grown over the past few years (up 18% in the U.S. since 2019), scientists and growers worldwide have rushed to find the most drought-tolerant variety of the naturally thirsty nut tree.
Creating a sustainable future for farming as we know it may require sweeping changes to our relationship with water and even our food. Individual landowners are limited only by budget and imagination when deciding how to prepare for the future, including which crops to grow, how to irrigate their fields, or how to respond to water waste. A multimodal approach with sights set on the horizon will help protect modern farmers and preserve their way of life for generations to come.
