This year alone, crop failures triggered by changes in weather patterns, supply chain issues, and the effects of conflicts around the world mean that certain fruits and vegetables may be scarce, and so will goods made with that produce. Canned vegetables, frozen entrees, dried soup mixes, fruit juices and natural flavorings are all likely to become either more expensive or increasingly hard to find.
The global shortage of aluminum is another major factor in shortage or rising prices in everything from canned meat to beverages. Light, strong, cheap to produce, and recyclable, aluminum is nowadays one of the most in-demand metal materials. The current scarcity of aluminum is driven by rapidly rising demand, increasing transportation costs, and cuts in production as China, formerly the world’s largest exporter of aluminum, strives to reach carbon-emissions goals. None of these factors are likely to be immediately eliminated, so the long-term outlook for many shelf-stable foods will be influenced by increased prices and short supply.
Meat and dairy products are also likely to suffer price increases - perhaps steep ones. To begin with, livestock and chickens all consume food made up of grains and cereals. Even in areas where livestock is typically pasture-fed, the effect of drought may necessitate expensive feed supplementation due to the rapid decline in forage quality. Even without outside market pressure, the simple cost of water to support hay production during a drought can raise hay prices by 25% or more. Dairy farmers and livestock farmers alike are forced to cut their herds, which will eventually lead to reduced supplies of meat, milk, cheese, butter and other staples.
Shortages of packaging materials, especially plastics, may further exacerbate shortages, and labor shortages across the line, from transportation to stocking shelves, may result in limited options of dairy items and fresh meat. Over several difficult seasons, producers may permanently reduce operations, stop shipping to some states, or divert their product exclusively to manufacturers who use it as ingredients in other products, making less available for individual consumers.
In 2022, a wide variety of products are increasingly difficult to find - baby formula, in particular, is making headlines right now. Sometimes these shortages are due to limited circumstances - the nation’s cream cheese supply, for example, is still suffering supply issues stemming from a cyber-attack in late 2021. Still, increasingly ubiquitous problems like packaging shortages, reduced harvests, and transportation problems are likely to continue, if not worsen.
Right now, in mid 2022, at least some of these items are likely to be in short supply in your region of the US.
- Avocados
- Cereals and grains (oats, wheat, corn, bran)
- Canned goods
- Eggs and meat (beef, pork, chicken)
- Plant-based proteins (almond milk, tofu, etc.)
- Frozen vegetables
- Pet food
- Lunchables
- Juice boxes
- Pasta
- Imported foods and spices
- Cream cheese
- Baby formula
- Beer
- Coffee
- Cooking oils
We’re not on the verge of famine here in the US, obviously, but we’re definitely beginning to see the effects of famine and wider food insecurity around the world. It’s time to come to terms with the idea that critical food shortages can and will almost certainly affect us in the future. The national shortage of infant formula is frightening enough. What happens when the price of bread, meat, or vegetables becomes untenable?
